Despite a slight recovery in recent days, Ethereum (ETH) remains one of the most underperforming major cryptocurrencies in 2025, having lost over 50% of its value year-to-date. Now, new on-chain metrics point to further downside risks as market signals and macroeconomic tensions continue to mount.
Derivative Inflows Signal Growing Bearish Sentiment
Data from CryptoQuant reveals that on April 16, over 77,000 ETH flowed into derivative exchanges — the largest single-day net inflow in recent months. This influx mirrors similar events on March 26 and April 3, both of which preceded significant price drops for Ethereum.
Historically, such spikes in derivative exchange inflows indicate increased hedging or short-selling activity, often by institutional players preparing for downside moves.
Macro Tensions Add to Selling Pressure
The timing of this latest inflow coincides with escalating US-China trade tensions, following Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. tech and agricultural goods. These geopolitical developments have rattled risk markets globally and pushed investors toward safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar and Treasury bonds — further weakening sentiment in the crypto market.
As Ethereum hovers near multi-month lows at approximately $1,500, these combined macro and on-chain pressures are adding fuel to the bearish outlook.
Whale Sell-Off Accelerates the Trend
In another worrying sign, Ethereum whales have unloaded approximately 143,000 ETH over the past week. This large-scale distribution reflects broader market anxiety and has the potential to exacerbate downward price momentum if selling continues.
With institutional players possibly bracing for more declines and whale behavior echoing that sentiment, Ethereum’s near-term outlook remains fragile.
A Silver Lining? Record-Low Transaction Fees
Amid the gloom, analytics firm Santiment highlighted one notable contrarian signal: Ethereum gas fees have dropped to a five-year low, averaging just $0.168 per transaction.
This dip reflects declining network activity, particularly within DeFi, NFTs, and smart contract usage. However, from a trader’s perspective, historically low gas fees have often aligned with local market bottoms, signaling a potentially lower-risk entry point for long-term buyers.
Santiment notes that fee levels under $1 are usually indicative of decreased crowd interest — an environment that has, in the past, preceded strong rebounds.
Final Thoughts
Ethereum’s price is at a critical inflection point. With derivative exchange inflows climbing and whales heading for the exit, the bearish indicators are clear. However, historically low transaction fees offer a glimmer of hope that the altcoin could be approaching a bottom.