The crypto market entered the second half of 2025 with slight upward momentum on Monday, following a muted weekend of price action. As global traders return from the weekend, all eyes are now on several high-impact economic events and policy decisions that could inject fresh volatility into the markets.
Trump’s $3.4 Trillion “One Big Beautiful Bill” Clears the House
Late last week, the US House narrowly passed President Donald Trump’s sweeping $3.4 trillion fiscal bill dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill.” The package includes a range of pro-business measures aimed at boosting corporate competitiveness and economic output.
The bill is widely seen as bullish for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, as it signals continued fiscal stimulus and regulatory clarity for US companies.
Strong Economic Data, But Volatility Ahead
Recent data has also painted a picture of resilience in the US economy, with job market figures showing strength and improving consumer sentiment. However, traders are preparing for a potentially volatile week as several major economic indicators and policy developments are due between July 7 and July 11.
Key economic events to watch:
- Monday (July 7):
May’s Consumer Credit Change report will be released, offering insights into consumer borrowing and spending behavior. - Tuesday (July 8):
June’s Business Optimism Index will gauge small business confidence, while the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook may influence inflation expectations. - Wednesday (July 9):
The release of Federal Reserve meeting minutes will be scrutinized for clues on future rate cuts. Markets currently price in just a 4% chance of a July rate cut, with the next move expected no earlier than October.
But the biggest market-moving event could be the end of the 90-day US tariff pause. If President Trump reimposes steep reciprocal tariffs on trade partners without reaching new agreements, markets could react sharply. However, a further delay would be interpreted as pro-market and could boost investor risk appetite.
Big Bond Sales Could Add Pressure
Also contributing to this week’s complexity are several large US bond auctions:
- $58 billion in 3-year notes (Tuesday)
- $39 billion in 10-year notes (Wednesday)
- $22 billion in 30-year bonds (Thursday)
These sales could impact liquidity and investor positioning across all markets, including crypto.
Crypto Market Overview: Bitcoin and Ethereum Hold Steady
The total crypto market cap has climbed modestly to $3.44 trillion as of Monday morning in Asia, staying within the same trading range observed over the past two months.
Bitcoin (BTC) is showing mild strength, hovering around $109,500 and targeting a return above $110,000, last seen on July 3. A favorable outcome from the Trump administration on tariffs this week could act as a catalyst, potentially pushing Bitcoin to a new all-time high, now just 2.2% away.
Meanwhile, Ethereum (ETH) briefly retested the $2,600 level on Sunday, but was rejected again despite several bullish catalysts last week. ETH remains under pressure near resistance but is still holding key support zones.
Outlook: High Stakes, Low Room for Error
With President Trump’s tariff decision, Federal Reserve minutes, and large bond sales all scheduled this week, market conditions remain highly reactive. Any sign of easing trade tension or dovish monetary policy could fuel another leg higher for Bitcoin and altcoins.
However, uncertainty remains elevated, and traders are advised to remain cautious until key macro events pass. For now, crypto markets are holding steady, but the real test of direction lies just days ahead.
