Bitcoin (BTC) has staged a powerful recovery over the past three weeks, bouncing over 25% from its April 9 low near $74,000 to now trade above $96,500 as of early May. While price action alone has caught traders’ attention, deeper blockchain data and miner dynamics suggest something bigger may unfold in the early stages of a Bitcoin bull run in 2025.
Miner Production Costs Flash a Bottom Signal
Bitcoin advocate and macro analyst Robert Breedlove believes the recent rebound isn’t just a relief rally, it could be the beginning of a larger uptrend. In a recent post on X, Breedlove pointed to the average miner break-even cost as a historically reliable marker of Bitcoin market bottoms. According to data from Blockware, this production cost currently aligns with price levels seen during previous cycle lows.
Since mining becomes unprofitable when prices dip below the cost of production, it often triggers miner capitulation, reduces selling pressure, and sets the stage for a price rebound. This pattern appears to be repeating, with the current market showing signs of reduced miner activity and shrinking BTC supply.
Long-Term Holders and Whales Accumulate Aggressively
Further strengthening the bullish thesis is the consistent accumulation by Bitcoin’s long-term holders — investors who rarely sell regardless of volatility. Over the past month, these committed holders have added 150,000 BTC to their positions, which often precedes a supply shock and sharp price movement.
Whales have also entered the fray, purchasing approximately $4 billion worth of Bitcoin in the final two weeks of April. This surge in accumulation is mirrored by spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, which steadily increased from April 17 to April 30, signaling renewed institutional interest in the asset.
Adding to this, the total BTC held on centralized exchanges has dropped to a five-year low, reducing readily available supply and reinforcing the narrative that Bitcoin is running out of sellers, particularly in the $80K to $100K price band.
Global Liquidity and ETFs Fuel Optimism
On the macro front, Breedlove pointed out that Bitcoin’s correlation with fiat liquidity has become more pronounced. As central banks globally continue to ease monetary conditions, liquidity is expanding, and that capital increasingly finds its way into risk-on assets like Bitcoin.
Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes has long argued that global liquidity cycles significantly influence Bitcoin’s price action. Breedlove echoed this sentiment, suggesting that the proliferation of Bitcoin ETFs, institutional custody solutions, and financial products like BTC-backed bonds is making it easier for traditional capital to enter the market.
“Bitcoin is highly correlated to fiat liquidity – and that’s becoming increasingly more the case as ETFs, Bitcoin treasury companies, and convertible bonds provide easier access for new liquidity to enter the Bitcoin market,” he wrote.
Outlook: A New Bull Run Taking Shape?
All signs seem to suggest that the ingredients for a 2025 Bitcoin bull run are lining up. With a strong bounce in price, miners hitting break-even levels, long-term holders doubling down, and liquidity improving across the board, the market appears poised for another upward move.
While volatility and corrections remain part of the crypto landscape, current fundamentals paint a bullish picture — one that may just be the beginning of Bitcoin’s next major chapter.
