Bitcoin (BTC) started 2025 with an explosive rally, soaring to an all-time high of nearly $110,000 in January, coinciding with Donald Trump’s return to the White House. However, since then, BTC has faced a persistent downtrend, recently dipping below $77,000 before stabilizing around $84,000.
Despite the bearish sentiment, several key factors suggest Bitcoin could stage a major comeback in Q2 2025. Historically, BTC has posted strong gains during the second quarter in seven out of the last twelve years, making this period a potentially bullish season. The previous Bitcoin halving, which occurred in 2024, may also play a role. In 2017, BTC skyrocketed over 120% in the quarter following a halving, though in 2013 and 2021, Q2 saw losses.
Another factor driving potential gains is the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. While rates have remained unchanged this year, market expectations suggest a possible reduction in June. Lower interest rates tend to push investors toward riskier assets like Bitcoin, fueling demand and price growth.
Geopolitical events could also impact Bitcoin’s trajectory. Trump has vowed to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, holding talks with leaders from both nations. Although no resolution has been reached, any positive developments could reduce market uncertainty and boost investor confidence in risk assets.
Finally, whale activity is another bullish indicator. The number of Bitcoin addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC has surged to its highest level since late 2024. Historically, an uptick in whale accumulation signals confidence in an impending price rally. However, traders should remain cautious, as large holders can also trigger market volatility by offloading significant amounts of BTC.
With a historical Q2 uptrend, potential Fed rate cuts, and renewed whale accumulation, Bitcoin may be on the verge of a strong rebound. Could BTC break past $90,000 and beyond in the coming months? The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the market’s direction.
