Bitcoin (BTC) is set for significant volatility in the coming weeks, driven by the U.S. presidential election, the “Trump trade” narrative, and its historical Q4 performance. Analysts from Bitfinex predict that these factors are aligning to create a “perfect storm” for BTC, promising both excitement and price swings for investors.
Trump Trade Narrative
The upcoming U.S. presidential election is increasingly influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Many in the crypto community view a potential Republican victory—with Donald Trump being pro-crypto—as bullish for BTC. Conversely, a win by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who has shown only recent interest in digital assets, is seen as bearish.
With BTC’s recent price fluctuations, the market consensus is that options premiums and volatility for both U.S. stocks and BTC will rise around the first week of November when election results are anticipated. The correlation between Trump’s election odds and BTC’s performance has intensified the “Trump trade” narrative, where Bitcoin’s upward trend hinges on Trump’s success.
Bitcoin Options Activity Surge
BTC’s volatility is evident as the cryptocurrency recovered swiftly after a 6.2% drop last week, now surpassing $70,000. A surge in BTC options activity reflects this, with implied volatility projected to peak on November 8 for strike prices exceeding $100,000. Options expiring around the election date are commanding higher premiums, underscoring market anticipation.
BTC has displayed resilience after a dip below $54,000 in September, and it’s on track to close October in the green, following its traditional Q4 performance.
